A day in the poker life of EVH (that's me)

I came back from work tired and smelling like burnt plastic. I ate a delicious salad, watched some TV and then jumped on my leather chair, grabbed my wireless keyboard and logged in at Full Contact Poker. I entered a low stake Pot limit ring game (0.25+0.25 PL), the table was full of lose aggressive players, it took me 30 bucks to find that out but I decided to stay at that table because I knew how to get my money back. I switched my game from passive to aggressive almost every 5 minutes, I was calling pockets and raising with suited connectors and my raising was inconsistent so they were lost. Of course I was playing regular poker with absolutely no bluff with the couple of amateurs at the table.

After 30 minutes I knocked out 3 guys and crippled the ex-chip leader with quads I got at the flop. I just let them raise and re-raise into themselves while I was partying it on my chair and seen that pot getting bigger and bigger. At the river one guy went all in and then the other two followed suit. There was 2 full houses, one Ace high flush and my dear quads. I made enough money to enter the high stake tournament I wanted to play.

After 7 minutes in the game, I was short stacked, i went all in with pocket tens and someone rivered me L , I finished 7^th (it was a single table tournament). With the left over from my previous winning I went to some ring games, after 20 minutes I made a fat profit. When I decided to leave, I saw these entire 2-people table, so I entered one just to watch. Before I entered I was expecting to watch professionals playing for that much money (2,000+) but I was surprised that they had no clue how to play.

So I decided to try it out. I entered a table where my opponent had five folds my stack but I was confident I would get the money. I start using my strategy for showdowns in tournaments which is ALWAYS RAISE NO MATTER WHAT YOU HAVE AND LET THEM FOLD LIKE LITTLE GIRLS. When he noticed what I was doing it was too late, we were almost equal in chips. I was temped to leave with the profit but I knew so much about his game that I wanted to stick around a bit.

I was fishing a lot…I mean I was fishing every single hand. My opponent had no clue what were hand and pot odds; he wasn’t betting enough and he would fold whenever I show I have even a pair. Finally he took his money back with a K high straight while I had the 10 high straight L . But I was confident I would get it back. I forgot about the lose and I went back to my game but this time he believed I was on a tilt so he was calling more of my raises. Thanks to that and a pocket 8s I made a nice profit before he left the table. Too bad.

I was ready to leave the table when a guy came in with 60 bucks (i had 500+). I said to myself ‘ok one more hand.’ – I got a pocket jacks…NICE :) the flop was A 7 9[all hearts], he was first, he bet $1, I raised to $5 and he calls, the turn was a 5, he checks and I bet $5 and he calls. By this time I put him on a straight draw. Next card is a J, he goes all-in and I sit there for a second analyzing the game. I had a feeling he had nothing, he was on a draw and he didn’t make it.

Let’s analyse this

Common card were A795J

He could beat me with KQ, AA, KK & 87 however, I WASN’T FEELING IT, so I called and it turned out he had QT, what a moron :)

Understanding your limits

Yesterday I had a great start, I won 2 ring games, then I won a high stakes tournament. I made a decent profit for one day [it took me almost 3 hours]. Later that night, I was tired but decided to play a bit – BAD DECISION. After I lost the first time, I was on a tilt. At the end I lost everything I made that day [I made a $3 profit J ]. This lead me to today’s topic. How do you know when it is enough?

As you all already know, I am a reliability engineer. Part of what I do is to record work done on equipment and from those records I analyze the history of the equipment so I can come up with the best action [rebuilding, replacing or performing a preventative maintenance] on the equipment. I have been able to increase the production and the uptime of most of our manufacturing lines thanks to that history that I created. This is a good illustration on the importance of building a history with useful data.

Most poker players keep a record of their winnings that’s why I started recording my poker winnings since i was 18. I have been developing what I record and I believe I finally came up with the ideal spreadsheet.

Following is what I record in my spreadsheet for each entry:
Date
Profit/lose [if it was either from ring games or tournaments, and what was the entry fee]
Time
Profit per hour
Location where I played [house game, casino or online (for online I specify the site)]

Also I record the frequency of winning and losing in tournaments (single tables and multiple tables in different indicators), see previous post to see what’s the benefit of this metric.

From this data I can conclude what method is the most profitable for me (so far it has been house games with online at Full Contact Poker a close second). Also, I can conclude my overall profit and my profit per month.

Now back to the first question, How do you know when it is enough?

Using this database and performing some statistical tools, it came up that my optimum profit was at 3.25 hours (3 hours and 15 minutes). And going back to yesterday it makes perfect sense. I made the peak at 2.8 hours, then I lost everything from then to hour six.

So my recommendation is to record the location and the time you spend everyday playing and what is your profit for that day and from that come up with your poker strategy.
If you have more metrics in your records I would love to hear what they are and discuss their benefits.

Delicious chinese food.

You may be wondering why i haven't posted anything in 25 days? the answer is really simple - i have been too busy. I have been fine tuning my online game and i have been studying players' behaviours very carefully. First i started keeping a record of my % of tournament winnings, i already have a poker record but it doesn't specify tournaments. So i found out that my tournamnet winning rate is 27% [sample population was 55 tournaments] which is close to 1 out of every 4 tournaments.

Since January, August has been the first month with a steady profit. The reason for the change is my new method of playing. Here is my game plan. I already got people laughing at it, but it works for me:

Statistically, i win 1 game of every 4 i play. Therefore, i start the day with a $20+2 tournament,and i will continue to play 20+2 games till i loose 3 times, then i will play 50+5. Regardless of the outcome of the last tournament i will return to 20+2 games till i lose 3 times.

What is my phylosophy behind that tactic?

A lot of players they start the day with high stake tournaments and when their bankroll is low they will switch to low stake games. The following example illustrates my point.

(Some of you were getting confused about this, so i made the math clearer)
Regular player
lose 50+5 = -55
lose 50+5 = -55
lose 50+5 = -55
win 20+2 = +88
-----------------
net profit = -77

Me
lose 20+2 = -22
lose 20+2 = -22
lose 20+2 = -22
win 50+5 = 195
------------------
net profit = 129

You may say my method is flawed since you cannot predict that you will always lose the first 3 times and win the 4th game - think about it by answering the following 3 questions.

What is the probability you will fip tails one time? 50%
What is the probability you will fip tails two times in a row? 50% x 50% = 25%
What is the probability you will fip tails three times in a row? 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%

According to your history you know your winning rate is 25% so you know you will win one game out of approximetely four [assuming that losing three times in a row doesn't affect your game]. So each time you lose, your winning chances increase [ as illustrated below]. It is the same principle like betting double the last bet on the same color in the roullette.

The odds of losing on time = 77%
The odds of losing 2 times in a row = 77% x 77% = 59%
The odds of losing 3 times in a row = 77% x 77% x 77% = 45%
and for the 4th, 5th and 6th time the probability of losing are 35% , 27% & 20%

If you have any comments i really would like to hear them, good or bad.

As for the picture at the top of this post, I went for chinese today, it was delicious.
Hahaha