Delicious chinese food.

You may be wondering why i haven't posted anything in 25 days? the answer is really simple - i have been too busy. I have been fine tuning my online game and i have been studying players' behaviours very carefully. First i started keeping a record of my % of tournament winnings, i already have a poker record but it doesn't specify tournaments. So i found out that my tournamnet winning rate is 27% [sample population was 55 tournaments] which is close to 1 out of every 4 tournaments.

Since January, August has been the first month with a steady profit. The reason for the change is my new method of playing. Here is my game plan. I already got people laughing at it, but it works for me:

Statistically, i win 1 game of every 4 i play. Therefore, i start the day with a $20+2 tournament,and i will continue to play 20+2 games till i loose 3 times, then i will play 50+5. Regardless of the outcome of the last tournament i will return to 20+2 games till i lose 3 times.

What is my phylosophy behind that tactic?

A lot of players they start the day with high stake tournaments and when their bankroll is low they will switch to low stake games. The following example illustrates my point.

(Some of you were getting confused about this, so i made the math clearer)
Regular player
lose 50+5 = -55
lose 50+5 = -55
lose 50+5 = -55
win 20+2 = +88
-----------------
net profit = -77

Me
lose 20+2 = -22
lose 20+2 = -22
lose 20+2 = -22
win 50+5 = 195
------------------
net profit = 129

You may say my method is flawed since you cannot predict that you will always lose the first 3 times and win the 4th game - think about it by answering the following 3 questions.

What is the probability you will fip tails one time? 50%
What is the probability you will fip tails two times in a row? 50% x 50% = 25%
What is the probability you will fip tails three times in a row? 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%

According to your history you know your winning rate is 25% so you know you will win one game out of approximetely four [assuming that losing three times in a row doesn't affect your game]. So each time you lose, your winning chances increase [ as illustrated below]. It is the same principle like betting double the last bet on the same color in the roullette.

The odds of losing on time = 77%
The odds of losing 2 times in a row = 77% x 77% = 59%
The odds of losing 3 times in a row = 77% x 77% x 77% = 45%
and for the 4th, 5th and 6th time the probability of losing are 35% , 27% & 20%

If you have any comments i really would like to hear them, good or bad.

As for the picture at the top of this post, I went for chinese today, it was delicious.
Hahaha